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Russian analyst puts Ukraine's FPV effective hit rate at 1-in-20 to 1-in-40

Published 9 October 2026

A Russian engineering analyst estimated Ukraine produced roughly 4 million FPV drones over the past year at a total programme cost — including overhead — of $15–20 billion. Cross-referencing that production volume against observable Russian losses, the analyst concludes only 1 in 20 to 40 launches results in a confirmed strike, making the true cost per hit far higher than the nominal unit price implies. The analysis argues FPV drones are not an inherently cheap precision weapon once effectiveness rates are factored in.

Sources — 1 post

Русский инженер (Russian Engineer) adversary8 Oct 2026 Open the post

Topicsfpv drones manufacturing

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