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Drone substitution depresses 155 mm artillery demand; Rheinmetall H1 2026 orders sharply down

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Ukraine’s sole confirmed first-half 2026 order from Rheinmetall is for tens of thousands of 155 mm ER02A1 long-range shells manufactured at Rheinmetall Expal in Spain, valued at ‘several hundred million euros’—well below the 500,000–700,000 rounds Rheinmetall shipped to multiple customers across all of 2025. Russian and Ukrainian analysis attributes the structural decline to drone substitution: at €4,000–8,000 per 155 mm round, conventional artillery shells are losing competitive ground to drone munitions across a widening range of mission sets, raising questions about Rheinmetall’s stated targets of one million shells per year by 2027 and 1.5 million by 2030.

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Topicsdrones

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